Global Oil Disaster Scenario
The U.S., as the driver of the global economy via its consumers, is especially vulnerable. It has not reduced its “addiction to oil,” as President Bush called it in his State of the Union address, by conservation or alternative energy technology, and now it’s too late.
It ignored the early warnings of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, by returning to gas-guzzling automobiles that increased risk, insecurity and disaster. Rather than concentrating on spurring global commerce and energy alternatives after the 911 attacks in New York and Washington, the U.S. has been using its military power to transform Middle East autocracies into democracies, and failing at that task, while creating more enemies that can use a global disaster to their own ends.
One of those enemies is Iran, which might use the threat of nuclear weapons during the crisis “to wipe Israel off the face of the earth,” as its president intends. Crises in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine and elsewhere in the Middle East can opportunistically worsen overnight. Another U.S. enemy is Venezuela, which could worsen the global oil crisis by shunting its oil to markets other than the U.S., while extending its military hegemony to Colombia in aid of the FARC narco-terrorists, and insurgents in Ecuador, Peru or Central America.
The U.S. military, hard-pressed to deal with its current assignments already, may find itself facing a dozen hot spots impossible to address simultaneously, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve quickly depleting, and Venezuela and Iran enjoying $150 per barrel prices. Oil producing states might respond to the crisis by nationalizing foreign oil and gas company assets for national security purposes, further depleting the U.S. energy supply.
Pinpointed terrorist attacks on easy U.S. infrastructure targets such as seaports, nuclear power plants, offshore oil rigs and pipelines would be icing on the terrorist cake.
The panic in the U.S., which possesses strategic weapons for war but few for dealing with an elusive, asymmetric enemy, can turn nasty. Picking through the detritus of the global disaster will be China, which can lock down domestic turbulence in ways the U.S. and Europe cannot. Doom and gloom disaster scenarios based upon oil are not confined to Internet bloggers and TV producers.
They have been mapped out for decades by national security advisors and strategic risk analyzers.
There are dozens of books on the subject. But the warning signals have been ignored. Disaster scenarios have been discounted as improbable. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. acted as if its national security threats were greatly diminished. The truth was counterintuitive. The weatherman is not alone studying the hurricane map these days.
It ignored the early warnings of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, by returning to gas-guzzling automobiles that increased risk, insecurity and disaster. Rather than concentrating on spurring global commerce and energy alternatives after the 911 attacks in New York and Washington, the U.S. has been using its military power to transform Middle East autocracies into democracies, and failing at that task, while creating more enemies that can use a global disaster to their own ends.
One of those enemies is Iran, which might use the threat of nuclear weapons during the crisis “to wipe Israel off the face of the earth,” as its president intends. Crises in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine and elsewhere in the Middle East can opportunistically worsen overnight. Another U.S. enemy is Venezuela, which could worsen the global oil crisis by shunting its oil to markets other than the U.S., while extending its military hegemony to Colombia in aid of the FARC narco-terrorists, and insurgents in Ecuador, Peru or Central America.
The U.S. military, hard-pressed to deal with its current assignments already, may find itself facing a dozen hot spots impossible to address simultaneously, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve quickly depleting, and Venezuela and Iran enjoying $150 per barrel prices. Oil producing states might respond to the crisis by nationalizing foreign oil and gas company assets for national security purposes, further depleting the U.S. energy supply.
Pinpointed terrorist attacks on easy U.S. infrastructure targets such as seaports, nuclear power plants, offshore oil rigs and pipelines would be icing on the terrorist cake.
The panic in the U.S., which possesses strategic weapons for war but few for dealing with an elusive, asymmetric enemy, can turn nasty. Picking through the detritus of the global disaster will be China, which can lock down domestic turbulence in ways the U.S. and Europe cannot. Doom and gloom disaster scenarios based upon oil are not confined to Internet bloggers and TV producers.
They have been mapped out for decades by national security advisors and strategic risk analyzers.
There are dozens of books on the subject. But the warning signals have been ignored. Disaster scenarios have been discounted as improbable. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. acted as if its national security threats were greatly diminished. The truth was counterintuitive. The weatherman is not alone studying the hurricane map these days.
posted by Ottawa Gas Prices | 8:30 PM
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