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Friday, March 31, 2006

We're Losing Our Greatest Resource

Do you want to know why Saskatchewan's population is declining during a resource boom? Why it is that we lost 2,000 people in the last few months of 2005, even though we're rolling in resource revenue?

One answer could be found in a lecture theatre in the Engineering building on campus this week. University of Saskatchewan students from a variety of disciplines came out to hear charismatic Shell Canada president and CEO Clive Mather talk enthusiastically about the future of energy development in Canada, especially as it relates to his company's main developments located in -- wait for it -- Alberta.

The Shell CEO was somewhat apologetic that his company doesn't have any major projects in Saskatchewan, but he admits that won't happen any time soon unless this province -- probably the area around Birch Hills -- is chosen for the country's first industrial-scale ethanol from cellulose facility. Shell could be an investor here, because of its interest in bio-based fuels through past investments in an Ottawa company called Iogen Corp.

But Shell is mainly focused on Alberta and no doubt young geologists and chemical engineers from the U of S will be happy to join the exodus to work there. Shell will be happy to have them.

There will be opportunities for oil and gas work in Saskatchewan, but if the geo-science and computer modelling continues to be done in offi ces in Calgary after the seismic work occurs in Saskatchewan, we will never have much of an oil patch to speak of here.

The oil boom in Western Canada does lead to jobs here in Saskatoon, but it is a spinoff role in manufacturing.

On Wednesday night, at the NSBA Business Builders event, there were a fair number of companies represented at corporate tables that are involved in fabricating things, making pressure vessels and other high tolerance steel products that are needed in the oil patch. Companies such as Hitachi and JNE Welding are certainly part of this phenomenon.

SHOW TIME DOWNTOWN

We do have an energy boom in another form. Jamie McIntyre of Cameco Corp., who helped present an award at the NSBA, pointed out how there are now 400 people working in the Cameco head offi ce here, the $500-million Cigar Lake uranium mine moves toward production a year from now and the company keeps running ads each week looking for more professionals. That will help absorb some of our university's graduates locally.

This resource boom, plus the ever increasing investment in knowledge and research at the university and Innovation Place, are some of the main reasons why houses are popping up in new neighbourhoods.

Twice in the past week, I've run into Wally Mah, who still seems to be in wonder that in 2006 there is a market for $600,000-plus houses in Saskatoon. Of course, the Northridge Development president knows exactly who is buying such houses, which his company and others are putting up in the Willows development.

What Mah and others in his business are really interested in knowing for sure is how to forecast what the demand will be for the mainstream housing mark. If you can forecast job growth and the quality of those jobs, it makes it easier to predict housing demand, whether it's in the new city neighbourhoods or in Martensville or Warman.

This is a census year, so it will be interesting to see what this spring's Statistics Canada snapshot shows of the population within the Saskatoon census region. If it isn't really growing, then why all this new investment in retail development?

At the NSBA banquet, commercial real estate agent Ron Ritchie of ICR Ashford was joking about all the new shopping developments that people will have to get used to talking about -- Blairmore, Preston Crossing and Stonegate, which are the retail developments under proposal.

Ritchie said he was talking with a national client who kept referring to the Stonegate shopping area as Stonehenge.

No, Stonehenge is the south downtown development," Ritchie quipped. "It's been there that long."

But even south downtown, with the Cineplex Galaxy theatre structural steel in place, is starting to look like the long downtown development inertia is over.

In whatever quadrant of the city, would outside companies be investing in Saskatoon if they didn't think job growth and growth in household income would continue?

Nevertheless, the overt recruitment by companies from Alberta, including high-powered CEOs wooing our university students, reminds us that even if we have moderate success at job creation, Saskatoon will still be losing many people in the younger demographic that we'd really prefer to see stay.

TheStarPhoenics

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