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Monday, April 03, 2006

Oil Edges Up Back Near $67

Oil prices rose but ended off their highs Monday as investment funds poured fresh cash into commodities and production woes in Nigeria reignited supply concerns.

U.S. light crude for May delivery rose 11 cents at $66.74 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after climbing over $1 to $67.80 a barrel earlier in the session, the highest trading price since Feb. 1.

Commodities prices rose across the board, with copper and zinc hitting record highs and gold at a 25-year high as new institutional money flowed in at the start of the new quarter.

"Another surge of new money is coming into the commodity markets," said Mike Wittner of Calyon.

The loss of 550,000 barrels per day of Nigerian oil in rebel attacks also helped support prices. The reduced output has coincided with growing demand from refiners in the United States, consumer of 40 percent of the world's gasoline.

"The loss of critical Nigerian barrels just as U.S. refiners are returning from maintenance has established a $60 floor (for U.S. crude) and threatens to re-test the all time high of $70.85," analysts at PFC Energy wrote in a note.

Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Edmund Daukoru said the biggest foreign operator Royal Dutch Shell would restart its offshore EA field in days. Shell declined comment.

Reuters reported on Sunday that Shell was reluctant to send its staff back into the violent southern delta region despite more naval patrols there.

Deutsche Bank noted many analysts expected attacks on Nigeria's oil industry to continue in the run-up to the presidential election early next year.

U.S. oil hit a $70.85 record high last September after hurricanes knocked out a big chunk of Gulf of Mexico refining and oil and gas production.

Analysts say another active U.S. hurricane this year could further strain the oil market.
OPEC set to meet

OPEC ministers will meet informally during talks between oil consumers and producers in Qatar starting April 22, OPEC's acting secretary general Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo said in Abuja. OPEC's next full ministerial meeting is in June in Venezuela.

The group, which accounts for over half the world's oil exports, appears powerless to bring prices down. Daukoru, who is also the OPEC president, said he expects OPEC to keep official output at near-maximum levels.

Asked if he expected OPEC to cut its output ceiling, Daukoru said: "Not at this price level. Honestly I don't see it."

That fell in line with comments by Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah. "We are doing all that we can do... to stabilize the oil market," he said Sunday.

PFC Energy analysts agreed. "Unless the Nigerian outages can be fixed, OPEC will be in a bind again," they wrote.

Attiyah said he believed the global economy could absorb $60 a barrel crude, the latest indication that OPEC was unlikely to allow prices to fall back sharply.

The head of Algerian state oil firm Sonatrach said prices were likely to remain high for the time being.

"There is a consensus based on market fundamentals that a sustained price will be maintained in the short term," Sonatrach Chief Executive Mohamed Meziane said in Algiers.

CNN

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