Home Hydrogen Fueling Station

What could be greener than a hydrogen car in your driveway? Try a solar-powered hydrogen fueling station in your garage. Australian scientists have developed a prototype of such a device. It's about the size of a filing cabinet and runs on electricity generated by rooftop solar panels. The first version is expected to produce enough hydrogen to give your runabout a range of some 100 miles without emitting a molecule of planet-warming greenhouse gas. Road trips are out of the question, but it's enough juice for running errands or powering fleets of delivery trucks. Tests of the home fueling system began early this year with commercial trials two years off.

Driverless Bus: Ottawa Wants to Be Last

If you live in the U.K. you might be able to take a ride in this driverless electric and biofuel hybrid bus by then, hailing it to your location using your cell phone. We've heard of systems such as the Mobileye AWS that let you know if you're getting too close to the vehicle in front of you, but this 12-to-24-passenger pod goes without a driver at all, finding its way by following magnets embedded in the pavement.

Besides those magnet markers, these smart buses will use satellite navigation and onboard sensors to control their speed and direction. The optimistic purveyors of this technology expect a prototype next year and a commercially viable system by about 2010.

But 2010 is just when the serious trials will start, in enclosed areas such as Heathrow Airport. We might have to wait another 10 years before this technology is a reality. There's no word on who the brave souls will be to first test out this riderless horse, but we can only hope it's not running Windows Vista or XP.

Ottawa light-rail project relaxing.

Winter Blast in US Raises Oil Prices

Oil prices rose Monday following a blast of winter in the United States.

An unusually warm winter in the United States and numbers showing growing crude inventories had dragged oil prices below US$50 a barrel last Thursday.

But over the weekend, snow, sleet and freezing rain hit the U.S. East Coast, and winds up to 60 mph (95 kph) piled snow into drifts as high as 3 feet (90 centimeters) in parts of Colorado.

It’s the falling temperature in the U.S. Northeast that has prompted market participants to speculate that higher fuel demand will stamp out the high U.S. inventories.

Crude oil rose 74 cents to $52.73 a barrel at midday in Europe. The contract, which rose $1.51 Friday to settle at $51.99 a barrel.

Perhaps the cold weather came a little too late, there aren’t too many cold winter weeks left, but it is providing for a little psychological boost.

Still, analysts say the downtrend in the price of crude is far from over.

Pump Prices May Inch Down More

The headlines say oil prices have fallen 15 % already. Gas station receipts tell a different story - the cost of filling 'er up has slipped from about $60 to $50. Big deal.

The cost will probably drop further, but drivers shouldn't hope for a big windfall at the pump: there's a lot more that goes into gasoline prices than the current cost of crude oil.

Besides taxes and the costs of refining, distributing and marketing, there are factors such as local competition among gas stations. Just as with other forms of retail, consumers see savings when one retailer lowers its price, and the others scramble to match it.

If gasoline costs me a dollar a gallon, and my competition down the street is selling it for 89 cents, my customer doesn't care what I paid for it.

Crude oil prices have fallen from about $61 to $51 a barrel this year, but the price of gasoline on the side of the road has declined more slowly.

A typical car holds 12 to 15 gallons, so if it's filled four times in a month, that's savings of less than $10 in a month - not even enough for that daily cup of coffee.

Pump prices haven't plunged to $2 a gallon yet, which is where they were back in early 2005, when crude oil prices were also around $50 a barrel. The big difference was that, unlike now, crude oil wasn't coming off a record high of $78 a barrel just six months earlier.

Essentially, the recent price drop hasn't completely sunk in on the wholesale level, so gasoline retailers are still paying a lot for their product and won't lower prices until competition forces them to do so.

The price of crude oil accounts for about half the retail price of gasoline. That means if crude oil is down 15 %, pump prices should be down almost 8 %.

But the time it takes for a drop in wholesale prices to fully affect retail prices is around 12 weeks, though most of the drop happens within the first two weeks.

Retailers aren't making their price decisions on the price of crude oil. Instead, they focus on how much they paid for their current load of gasoline, and how much their supplier is telling them their next load will cost.

We don't care about anything except what that tank the truck just brought in cost.

A sharp rise in crude oil is another story. After crude spiked to record highs the past two summers, it didn't take much time for gasoline prices to follow suit. That's mainly because retailers got nervous that their next shipment of gasoline would cost a bundle, and also because they knew that summer demand is high and drivers could at least for a while pay inflated prices, albeit reluctantly.

The average gasoline retailers have to charge 13 cents per gallon more than they paid to break even and mark it up even more to make a profit.

In 2006, the average gross margin for retailers was 13.76 cents a gallon - meaning profit was less than a cent per gallon. Because of credit card transaction fees, the credit card industry profited more from gasoline sales last year than gas stations did.

So station owners are loath to bring prices down too far too fast, especially if they're recovering from profits that were squeezed last year. Price wars hit in November and December, even though wholesale prices were fairly steady and crude oil was down from its summer highs.

Crude oil prices are about $10 lower than where they were a month ago, and many market analysts are saying they could tumble even lower. The reasons include the Northeast warm winter, which caused a glut in heating fuels, and traders following a wave of big funds in making bets in the market that prices will fall. Also, demand may not be as high as some had thought: Canadian demand for petroleum fell to below 2004 levels.

At this point, aside from retailers who are trying to make up big losses from last year, there's no reason gasoline prices need to stay high.

Retailers need to see the development of a trend to lower prices. They need to be convinced that these prices will stay down. Now that we're going into third week of prices below $60, a trend has been established yet.

Pump prices will fall further, nearing $2 a gallon in the coming weeks, as gasoline retailers ramp up the competition.

Historically, gasoline prices tend to drop 2-2.5 cents for every $1 that crude oil drops in the energy markets. With crude oil prices down $10 now from its December levels, Ottawa drivers are likely to see pump prices fall about 10 cents further.

Overall, drivers should see a bit more savings when filling their tanks, perhaps enough to upgrade their coffee to a latte occasionally. But they shouldn't get too comfortable, because the spring and summer driving seasons could push prices back up. Not only does demand rev up as more people go on road trips, but the type of gasoline is more expensive to refine - summer gasoline has to meet environmental regulations that winter gasoline does not.

Oil Plunges Below $50 a Barrel

Crude oil plunged below $50 US a barrel for the first time since May 2005 after an Energy Department report showed that US oil and fuel supplies surged.

Oil sank more than 3% after the report showed that inventories had their biggest gain since October 2004.

Stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuels, such as heating oil and diesel, also rose last week.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister rejected calls from some OPEC members for a meeting to discuss production cuts, helping push prices down.

If we continue to see these big increases in petroleum supplies, we’ll soon test $45. The Saudi nonchalance about the fall in prices is a major factor pulling us lower.

The 36% decline in prices from a record high of $78.40 a barrel on July 14 hasn't dissuaded bullish investors. Oil would resume its march toward $100 a barrel after a "correction".

I’m just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100. It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don’t have a clue, but I know it’s going to happen.

Warmer-than-normal weather in the US has sapped demand for heating fuels, contributing to a 17% plunge in oil prices so far this year. Demand will rise this week because of cooler weather.

Crude Oil Prices Hovering Near $50 US a Barrel

While gas prices in Ottawa and elsewhere in the province are at lows not seen for a year or more, energy traders are getting worried about crude oil prices hovering near $50 US a barrel.

The decline in world crude and North American wholesale prices, combined with price wars in some markets, caused the average retail price of regular unleaded gas in Ontario to decline from Jan. 8 to 15 for the fourth straight week, by 3.2c to 81c a litre, a 23-month low.

In Ottawa, prices fell to an 11-month low of about 83c at the end of last week. On GasPricesInOttawa.com yesterday, prices ranged from 73-83c.

Any further downward pressure on oil prices will decrease wholesale gas prices and then retail prices.

Oil Hovers Above $51

Oil held above $51 on Wednesday after falling more than 3 % the previous session to the lowest level in 20 months, but investors were wary about taking short positions that would test the psychologically key $50 mark.

U.S. crude futures for February rose 19 cents to $51.40 per barrel.

Prices touched $50.53 on Tuesday, the lowest level since May 26, 2005, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC production cuts were working well and there was no need for an emergency meeting of the producer group.

The market is quite nervous about taking positions after seeing so many days of sharp drops in oil prices. Many are getting out of the market and cutting their losses.

The market is also a little reluctant to take a short position because they are not sure if prices would actually fall below the psychologically important $50 line.

Oil prices have fallen around 16 % so far this year, in part due to warm weather in the U.S. Northeast, the world's top heating oil market.

We expect prices to drop further as the market remained strongly oversupplied and demand stayed weak.

Prices spiked in 2005 and 2006 because of large amounts of speculative funds flowing into the market. But many investors are now looking at the fundamentals of demand and supply, instead of pure speculation. That's why prices have fallen sharply and will fall further.

As colder weather reached the region, heating demand in the U.S. Northeast was forecast to rise above average early in the week, with Wednesday demand well above usual.

But the coming of the cold was a little too late to radically change the recent fundamentals.

Gas Prices In Ottawa Show Marked Decrease

If you have noticed prices at the pump have appeared lower you are not the only one. Gas Prices In Ottawa reports a drop in the cost of oil in the last two weeks has pushed our prices down.

The national average of a regular liter of gasoline has dropped about 11 cents in the last week.

Given the current trend of oil prices, the prospects look good for even lower prices at the pump in the coming weeks.

Automakers Face Higher Gas Prices

Fuel prices and fuel economy standards are expected to "rise dramatically" in the next decade, possibly putting further pressure on auto makers in the U.S.
Gasoline will average slightly more than $4 a gallon by 2015 and just more than $5 by 2020, according to a survey of more than 100 automotive manufacturers, suppliers and other experts conducted by the university's Transportation Research Institute Automotive Analysis Division.

They also expect the Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standards for cars to increase from 27.5 miles per gallon today to 33 mpg in 2015 and 38 mpg in 2020. For trucks, those surveyed expect CAFE standards, which are imposed by the federal government on auto makers in the U.S., to rise from the current 21.6 mpg to 27 mpg in 2015 and 31 mpg in 2020.

If the forecasts come to pass, it could lead to changes in buying habits that could create difficulties for auto makers. Though gasoline prices have abated recently, a spike in 2006 led to lower sales of SUVs and pickup trucks. That especially affected U.S.-based auto makers, which rely on the large vehicles for a big portion of their profits. A slowdown in the housing market also led to slower sales of pickup trucks.
U.S. auto makers are investing more in the midsize and small car segments and have increased the fuel efficiency of many of their vehicles. But consumer perception on fuel efficiency, in general, still favors Japanese auto makers.

Auto makers have long resisted changes to CAFE standards, arguing that it ignores the costs involved to companies and consumers to meet those standards. Democrats' regain of control of Congress has led some to speculate that legislators could put CAFE standards on the national agenda.

Auto makers are coming out with new, fuel-efficient systems and those surveyed expect alternative-fueled engines to make up 42% of the U.S. fleet in 2015 and 55% in 2020. Of the five alternative power systems - electric, fuel cell, advanced diesel, hybrid and homogeneous charge compression ignition - the most will be based on advanced diesel and hybrid technologies.

General Motors is expanding the use of its hybrid engines and last week announced a program to develop a plug-in hybrid. Ford Motor said on Tuesday that it's considering adding plug-in hybrid vehicles in the future.

But both GM and Ford noted that battery technology is still years away.

Further, all the work on alternative-fueled engines might not meet the expected new standards fast enough.

Though manufacturers are developing alternative powertrains, they may not be working fast enough to meet the challenges imposed on them by government regulations or by potential dramatic increases of fuel prices. The auto industry may be operating under a false - and potentially fatal - assumption that fuel economy is not a high priority.

Tories Hire Firm to Review Gas Pricing

The MacDonald government will spend $132,000 to hire the firm that first recommended gas regulations in the province to conduct a review of the government’s gas pricing regime.

Gardner Pinfold Consulting Economists will review gasoline and diesel fuel regulation in Nova Scotia and submit its report to government April 1, Service Nova Scotia and Municipal Affairs said Monday.

The review will examine factors that impact the policy goals of regulation, the stability of consumer prices, the support for gas stations, especially in rural areas, and the cost of regulation for consumers and government.

It will also assess the pricing model and recommend any improvements as part of assessing whether the policy is meeting objectives.

After review by government, it will be released to the public.

Oil Touches 18-month Low as Speculators Rush Exits

Crude oil prices were whipsawed, losing $2.20 (U.S.) a barrel to an 18-month low of $53.88 in early trading, before recovering to close at $55.64.

The price has dropped 9 % in the early days of 2007, and analysts say the money managers who had piled into energy commodities over the past three years are now looking to get out.

Motorists are seeing the benefit of that crude oil decline, as pump prices fell in most markets across the country last week.

In its weekly survey released yesterday, the company said the national average pump price for regular unleaded gasoline fell to 88.9 cents (Canadian) a liter, down 2.9 cents.

The national average hit $1.10 a liter last summer, and has been hovering above 90 cents for the last several months.

Analysts blame the unseasonably warm weather in northeastern United States and Europe for the weakness in crude prices, but the decline has been exacerbated by the sheer volume of hedge fund and pension fund money that was invested in energy futures in recent years.

The influx of investment money into the commodity market in the past three years added some $35 (U.S.) to the price of crude oil, when it peaked at $78.20 a barrel last summer.

But what the funds drove up, they are now forcing lower, by getting out of energy-based indices and short selling energy futures. (In short selling, a trader essentially makes a bet that a given security will decline in price.)

Weather is not the major factor here, the severity of this move points to funds exiting.

The intra day decline below $55 a barrel breached a key resistance level, setting the stage for even lower prices in the coming days. However, the market appeared to set a new floor when it rebounded after traders had concluded the market had sold off too quickly.

Oil Prices Fall Below $59 a Barrel

Crude oil prices opened the new year by plunging 4.5 percent as persistent mild weather in the United States led traders to bet on lagging demand for heating fuels.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $2.73 Wednesday from Friday's settlement price to a six-week low of $58.32 a barrel. It was the biggest one-day drop since Aug. 17, 2005, when crude fell $2.83 to settle at $63.25 a barrel.

Temperatures in New York City were in the 10 Celsius on Wednesday, and are expected to surpass 15 C over the weekend. Forecasters are saying the warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast United States — the biggest heating oil-consuming region — will continue through January.

That's going to put heating oil distributors around the country in pretty bad shape.

With the new drop, prices are starting to near the levels reached late in 2006. If those are breached, they can fall a long way.

On Nov. 17, the crude contract had closed at $55.81 a barrel, the lowest settlement since June 15, 2005.

Crude has not settled above $64 a barrel since September in what has become an increasingly weather-driven market: Oil surged to $70 a barrel for the first time in 2005 as Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, broke above $78 a barrel in July 2006 on fears of another bad storm season, and then sank to $60 a barrel when those expectations were not met.

Analysts are split on whether crude prices will stay below the 2006 average of about $66 a barrel or rise to new heights this year. Arguments for the latter forecast include ballooning energy demand in some parts of the world, including China; threats of production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; and ongoing political turmoil in oil-producing regions, such as Nigeria and the Middle East.

It was unclear if Wednesday's sharp decline will mark the beginning of a long-term downtrend, or merely short-term weakness. Evans said prices have the potential to rebound, given that at this time last year oil surged amid worries about violence in Nigeria and Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Both of those situations are somewhat more critical today than they were a year ago.

Oil Path Prediction for 2007

Daring prediction: A reversal of the inflationary trend in Western Canada's oil patch. Prices for goods and services in the upstream Canadian oil and gas industry have been hyper-inflating in recent years, running over 20 per cent this year. Now, the money in circulation is leveling, the economic viability of natural gas projects is shrinking and oil field service capacity is expanding. Market economics are working to arrest the inflation.

Biggest fear: That our federal or provincial governments will institute fiscal and environmental policies that act as de facto energy policy ill suited to the geography, climate, economy and overall well-being of our country.

Biggest hope: I hope that the economic viability of finding, developing and producing new reserves of natural gas will come back into a healthy balance. Right now, costs are too high and prices are too low. Without improving fundamentals, expect volatile price swings to continue.

Best call: In January, I suggested that the seriousness of Iran's atomic ambitions had “not yet trickled down to the oil markets.” By spring, the reality had set in and oil prices were marching up. I made the call that the price of the benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil would exit this year at $70 (U.S.)a barrel. We're pretty close to that.

Worst call: I was bearish on natural gas prices, which was a correct call. However I was adamant that benchmark U.S. natural gas prices would not dip below $6 per mmBtu (million British thermal units). For seven weeks in September and October they averaged $4.88 mmBtu.

Biggest surprise: Can anyone in the energy industry suggest a bigger surprise than the sharp reversal of income trust policy? Maybe it needed to be done, but the move is likely to dash my biggest hope for next year.

Oil Prices Rise Slightly

Oil prices rose slightly, with a warmer than usual winter in the U.S. restraining gains in the market.

Light sweet crude for February delivery was up 11 cents to $61.16 a barrel. February Brent rose 10 cents to $60.96 a barrel.

The market's short-term focus has turned to demand for winter fuels, particularly in the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.

Forecasts from the National Weather Service are for relatively warm temperatures in many parts of the country into the middle of January an outlook that has sent oil prices sliding.

Government data last week also showed U.S. heating oil inventories at 4.6 % above their 5-year average levels.

Oil prices could still find some support from longer-term concerns over the security of supplies and on expectations of robust growth in demand.

Natural Gas Prices to Rise in 2007

Consumers should enjoy stable gas bills while they last this winter because the next heating season already looks likely to be costlier, market analysts say.

Canada's energy industry is expected to put upward pressure on natural gas prices across North America in 2007 by producing less, consuming more and reducing exports to the United States.

Wholesale gas is hovering around $7 per gigajoule. The current price range is less than half the $15-plus peak hit last heating season after hurricanes made markets spike across the continent by damaging production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic forces are forecast to put upward pressure on prices even if the 2007 hurricane season turns out to be a dud like it was in 2006.

Canadian supplies on international markets will shrink noticeably by the second half of this year, predict industry analysts at Alberta investment houses Peters & Co. and FirstEnergy Capital Corp.

Canadian exports, a mainstay of U.S. gas supply, satisfy about 15 per cent of American demand; however, they are forecast to take the worst dive in a generation, dropping by up to one billion cubic feet per day.

Drilling is also tapering off compared with last winter.