Breaking America's "Addiction" won't be Easy or Painless.
President Bush's State of the Union pledge to end America's oil "addiction" and his tour last week of emerging energy-technology centers have touched off a national debate on how to achieve energy independence.
"The answer is pretty simple. We will never get to energy independence while we are using oil as the major fuel," said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California's Energy Institute in Berkeley.
There are ways to break America's oil addiction, experts say, but it will not be easy. Cures include stricter conservation, higher fuel-economy standards, alternative fuels made from common crops, and next-generation batteries for hybrid cars that could get more than 100 miles per gallon.
These and other options are promising, but all would require sacrifice and trade-offs. And, as important, none is yet cost competitive with oil. That is the biggest challenge to escaping America's oil-based economy. Although growing global demand has strained supplies, oil remains widely available and relatively cheap, even at today's high prices.
In November 1973, President Richard Nixon announced "Project Independence" to end U.S. reliance on foreign oil by 1980. He asked William Hogan to help lead the crusade. Hogan spent the ensuing energy-crisis years as deputy director of the forerunner to today's Department of Energy. But Americans are now more dependent than ever.
Here is what Hogan thinks of Bush's pledge to end America's oil addiction: "My honest reaction was, I wish he hadn't said it."
Hogan said he believed energy independence was illusory. Oil remains the world's most cost-efficient fuel and is likely to remain so indefinitely. The real goal, he said, should be reducing Americans' vulnerability to price and supply shocks.
The problem is "there's still all this oil in the Middle East," said Hogan, now a Harvard University professor. Because the Middle East is home to most of the world's proven oil reserves, it is expected to remain the low-cost oil producer for decades. And oil is likely to be the fuel of choice as long as it remains cheaper than alternatives, Hogan said.
If America went cold turkey, it would mean switching to higher-priced or heavily subsidized alternative fuels, which Americans and the government have resisted since Ronald Reagan won the presidential election in 1980.
During his State of the Union address, Bush called for reducing three-fourths of the oil that the United States purchases from the Middle East by 2025. A day later, his energy secretary clarified the goal - it is actually to reduce oil imports from anywhere by the equivalent of 75 percent of projected Middle East imports.
The Energy Department projects that Middle East oil imports will total six million barrels a day in 2025, so Bush's goal means displacing 4.5 million barrels a day by then.
That's more like a bartender taking away the glass but leaving the bottle. The United States would still be consuming nearly 23 million barrels a day of oil, and about 13 million barrels a day would come from abroad. Bottom line: Under Bush's approach, America would remain addicted to foreign oil and still vulnerable to price shocks in a global market. The surest way to break oil addiction is to make gasoline much more expensive. High gasoline taxes have helped Europe discourage consumption and promote more fuel-efficient cars.
Another option is to sharply increase mileage standards for new cars. During the 1970s, Congress imposed standards on carmakers, and fuel efficiency for passenger cars jumped from an average 12.9 m.p.g. in 1974 to 27.5 m.p.g. in 1985. The requirements for cars have not been raised since, and they are lower for trucks, including SUVs.
The Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy-research organization in Snowmass, Colo., offers a blueprint on how to attain oil independence by 2025. Its 2004 book Winning the Oil Endgame said U.S. oil consumption could be halved by 2025 with alternative fuels and conservation measures.
The institute recommends making cars from lightweight materials such as carbon-fiber composites. It also suggests "feebates": Owners of gas-guzzling SUVs would pay fees, while drivers of gas-electric hybrids or vehicles running on ethanol would get tax rebates.
Bush's proposals spotlight two alternatives to gasoline: new battery technologies for electric cars, and mass production of enzymes that convert plant fiber into ethanol fuel.
Consumers are snapping up hybrid cars by Toyota, Ford and Honda. Those cars have two motors, one powered by gasoline, the other electric. The gasoline motor recharges the battery. The cars achieve roughly double the mileage of a gasoline-only engine.
About 200,000 hybrids were sold last year, about 1.2 percent of the 17 million cars sold in the United States.
Bush also backs cellulose-to-ethanol technologies. Corn-based ethanol production is expected to reach six billion gallons next year; researchers estimate a maximum production potential of 15 billion gallons per year. That is about 12 percent of the projected 120.4 billion gallons of gasoline that the Energy Department estimates Americans will consume annually in 2025. Hardly independence. But mass production of biologically engineered enzymes that can break down virtually any plant fiber for conversion to ethanol offers hope. Add these to the mix, and suddenly ethanol's production potential leaps to 100 billion, approaching levels needed for independence.
"I think it's very doable. But it depends on whether policymakers provide the incentive to get it done," said Georg Anderl, director of operations for Genencor International, a biotechnology company in Palo Alto, Calif.
Even then, huge infrastructure hurdles would remain. Currently, fewer than 700 filling stations nationwide sell ethanol. More than 167,000 sell gasoline.
World's Largest Oil Reserves
While Saudi Arabia has the most proven reserves of crude oil, Canada - thanks to its tar sands - leaped to the No. 2 spot in 2003. In billions of barrels as of Jan. 1, 2005.
Region/country Amount
1. Saudi Arabia 261.900
2. Canada 178.800
3. Iran 125.800
4. Iraq 115.000
5. Kuwait 101.500
6. United Arab 97.800 Emirates
7. Venezuela 77.226
8. Russia 60.000
9. Libya 39.000
10. Nigeria 35.255
11. United States 21.371
12. China 18.250
13. Qatar 15.207
14. Mexico 14.600
15. Algeria 11.800
SOURCES: Oil & Gas Journal; Energy Information Administration
PhiladelphiaInquirer
"The answer is pretty simple. We will never get to energy independence while we are using oil as the major fuel," said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California's Energy Institute in Berkeley.
There are ways to break America's oil addiction, experts say, but it will not be easy. Cures include stricter conservation, higher fuel-economy standards, alternative fuels made from common crops, and next-generation batteries for hybrid cars that could get more than 100 miles per gallon.
These and other options are promising, but all would require sacrifice and trade-offs. And, as important, none is yet cost competitive with oil. That is the biggest challenge to escaping America's oil-based economy. Although growing global demand has strained supplies, oil remains widely available and relatively cheap, even at today's high prices.
In November 1973, President Richard Nixon announced "Project Independence" to end U.S. reliance on foreign oil by 1980. He asked William Hogan to help lead the crusade. Hogan spent the ensuing energy-crisis years as deputy director of the forerunner to today's Department of Energy. But Americans are now more dependent than ever.
Here is what Hogan thinks of Bush's pledge to end America's oil addiction: "My honest reaction was, I wish he hadn't said it."
Hogan said he believed energy independence was illusory. Oil remains the world's most cost-efficient fuel and is likely to remain so indefinitely. The real goal, he said, should be reducing Americans' vulnerability to price and supply shocks.
The problem is "there's still all this oil in the Middle East," said Hogan, now a Harvard University professor. Because the Middle East is home to most of the world's proven oil reserves, it is expected to remain the low-cost oil producer for decades. And oil is likely to be the fuel of choice as long as it remains cheaper than alternatives, Hogan said.
If America went cold turkey, it would mean switching to higher-priced or heavily subsidized alternative fuels, which Americans and the government have resisted since Ronald Reagan won the presidential election in 1980.
During his State of the Union address, Bush called for reducing three-fourths of the oil that the United States purchases from the Middle East by 2025. A day later, his energy secretary clarified the goal - it is actually to reduce oil imports from anywhere by the equivalent of 75 percent of projected Middle East imports.
The Energy Department projects that Middle East oil imports will total six million barrels a day in 2025, so Bush's goal means displacing 4.5 million barrels a day by then.
That's more like a bartender taking away the glass but leaving the bottle. The United States would still be consuming nearly 23 million barrels a day of oil, and about 13 million barrels a day would come from abroad. Bottom line: Under Bush's approach, America would remain addicted to foreign oil and still vulnerable to price shocks in a global market. The surest way to break oil addiction is to make gasoline much more expensive. High gasoline taxes have helped Europe discourage consumption and promote more fuel-efficient cars.
Another option is to sharply increase mileage standards for new cars. During the 1970s, Congress imposed standards on carmakers, and fuel efficiency for passenger cars jumped from an average 12.9 m.p.g. in 1974 to 27.5 m.p.g. in 1985. The requirements for cars have not been raised since, and they are lower for trucks, including SUVs.
The Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy-research organization in Snowmass, Colo., offers a blueprint on how to attain oil independence by 2025. Its 2004 book Winning the Oil Endgame said U.S. oil consumption could be halved by 2025 with alternative fuels and conservation measures.
The institute recommends making cars from lightweight materials such as carbon-fiber composites. It also suggests "feebates": Owners of gas-guzzling SUVs would pay fees, while drivers of gas-electric hybrids or vehicles running on ethanol would get tax rebates.
Bush's proposals spotlight two alternatives to gasoline: new battery technologies for electric cars, and mass production of enzymes that convert plant fiber into ethanol fuel.
Consumers are snapping up hybrid cars by Toyota, Ford and Honda. Those cars have two motors, one powered by gasoline, the other electric. The gasoline motor recharges the battery. The cars achieve roughly double the mileage of a gasoline-only engine.
About 200,000 hybrids were sold last year, about 1.2 percent of the 17 million cars sold in the United States.
Bush also backs cellulose-to-ethanol technologies. Corn-based ethanol production is expected to reach six billion gallons next year; researchers estimate a maximum production potential of 15 billion gallons per year. That is about 12 percent of the projected 120.4 billion gallons of gasoline that the Energy Department estimates Americans will consume annually in 2025. Hardly independence. But mass production of biologically engineered enzymes that can break down virtually any plant fiber for conversion to ethanol offers hope. Add these to the mix, and suddenly ethanol's production potential leaps to 100 billion, approaching levels needed for independence.
"I think it's very doable. But it depends on whether policymakers provide the incentive to get it done," said Georg Anderl, director of operations for Genencor International, a biotechnology company in Palo Alto, Calif.
Even then, huge infrastructure hurdles would remain. Currently, fewer than 700 filling stations nationwide sell ethanol. More than 167,000 sell gasoline.
World's Largest Oil Reserves
While Saudi Arabia has the most proven reserves of crude oil, Canada - thanks to its tar sands - leaped to the No. 2 spot in 2003. In billions of barrels as of Jan. 1, 2005.
Region/country Amount
1. Saudi Arabia 261.900
2. Canada 178.800
3. Iran 125.800
4. Iraq 115.000
5. Kuwait 101.500
6. United Arab 97.800 Emirates
7. Venezuela 77.226
8. Russia 60.000
9. Libya 39.000
10. Nigeria 35.255
11. United States 21.371
12. China 18.250
13. Qatar 15.207
14. Mexico 14.600
15. Algeria 11.800
SOURCES: Oil & Gas Journal; Energy Information Administration
PhiladelphiaInquirer
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