Ottawa Gas Prices, Traffic and Transportation Blog

Ottawa Gas Prices, Traffic and Transportation Blog. News, Articles, Analysis, Statistics, Observations, Forecasts, Opinions, Comments and Data on the Gas Prices, Traffic and Transportation in Ottawa (Ontario, Canada).

Friday, March 31, 2006

Oil, Gas Prices On the Rise

Ottawa's toothless tiger Competition Bureau checked in with the results of its big post-hurricane gas price probe yesterday.

It should come as no surprise that the monopoly busters found "no evidence" of a conspiracy among North American gasoline refiners.

Nor was there any "anti-competitive" behaviour.

Although the extent of the bureau's sleuthing appeared to be not much more than "analyzing information from publicly available resources."

I guess we shouldn't underestimate the power of Google.

The major reasons for what the report describes as the "price shock" which saw gasoline crest $1 a litre even in the refinery lotus land of Edmonton, was uncertainty of supply caused by lack of data. Also pipeline damage, and the shutdown of several key Gulf Coast refineries.

Gas prices shot up while the price of crude edged up.

And even though no Canadian refinery or pipeline sustained a lick of damage from hurricanes Katrina or Rita, Canadian gasoline prices track the New York Harbour price. It's just the old marketplace at work.

See no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil.

And anyway, "those margins have since fallen to pre-hurricane levels" the report noted.

Obviously, the bureau bureaucrats haven't been paying attention to Cathy Hay's weekly pump price survey.

The MJ Ervin and Associates analyst has been tracking what she calls a "pump price jump" right across the country for the past several weeks.

Yesterday, folks were posting price reports on the Edmonton Gas Price website showing a trend to 99.9 cents a litre for regular. Although there might be discounts at the pump.

Checking out gas bars

Yes, there really are people who drive around all day checking out gas bars. But then again, there are others who like ice fishing. It takes all kinds.

In her Tuesday survey, Hay found the Edmonton average for regular was 91.9 cents a litre. Premium was $1.026.

"Wholesale gasoline prices have been pushing higher since the middle of February," she said. "As the margin deteriorated at the retail level finally folks were faced with increasing their price just to restore some level of profitability."

So up went the stepladders. And also the prices.

Yesterday crude oil prices broke through the $66 US-a-barrel level, with West Texas Intermediate topping out at $67.16 US, up 70 cents from Wednesday. The price is headed, many believe, for the hurricane record of $70 US a barrel. Gold, which tends to run from trouble, hit its highest price since 1981 yesterday at $586.70 US on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $13.40.

Oil shut in from rebel attacks in Nigeria and Iran's nuclear threats are the latest culprits. Plus the little-known fact that as of last week, 22% of the daily oil production in the Gulf of Mexico - over 340,000 barrels a day - remains shut in since the hurricanes.

"This appears to be a trend that will continue," sighed the U.S. government's Minerals Management Service Gulf report. Clearly the iron was too beat up from the blow to ever work again.

Refineries go down for maintenance at this time, too. And new U.S. clean air rules require more ethanol in the gas. Which again causes speculation of shortages.

Oil prices are part of the picture. But not all of it, warns Hay. Although energy companies are clearly betting on good things to come.

The Alberta Energy Department drew the bottom line on land sales yesterday. An incredible $3.4 billion was bid on leases last year.

Wallet-biting motor fuel prices

"These resources belong to Albertans and play a large part in the prosperity and high quality of life we enjoy," whooped Alberta Energy Minister Greg Melchin. That's the upside. The downside is wallet-biting motor fuel prices.

"We're going to see much the same as last year," Hay said.

"We're still in an environment where we're very vulnerable to any hint in terms of a supply disruption.

"Real or otherwise," she added.

Pipeline breakdowns, a fire, a shutdown, "anything could throw a wrench in it," she said.

"And we're entering the season with relatively high prices."

Plus, Hay predicted all of this "in the absence of a hurricane to spike prices."

Life's a gas.

EdmontonSun

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